Kalshi users betting on what President Donald Trump would say during his speeches were reportedly up against a uniquely informed opponent: the president’s teleprompter operator.
The Inside Bet
Federal investigators believe Gabriel Perez — Trump’s teleprompter operator since 2016 — used advance knowledge of the president’s remarks to place profitable bets on Kalshi, a prominent prediction market platform, ABC News reports. According to The Verge, Perez is accused of wagering on what Trump would say during more than a dozen high-profile events.
The bets covered appearances including the February State of the Union address, a Medal of Honor ceremony, and remarks at the World Economic Forum. In total, Perez reportedly won more than $100,000 on the platform.
How “Mentions” Markets Work
Kalshi offers a category called “mentions” markets, where users predict what specific words, phrases, or topics a public figure will utter during a given event. Having direct access to the president’s teleprompter — and therefore his prepared remarks — gave Perez what investigators describe as a clear informational edge over other bettors.
Trump is scheduled to make another speech today, reportedly focusing on election integrity. Kalshi has multiple active markets where users are betting on what he will say and how long he speaks.
Kalshi’s Response
Kalshi’s surveillance systems flagged Perez’s unusual trading activity before any public reporting on the matter. Robert DeNault, head of enforcement at Kalshi, told The Verge: “Our surveillance team promptly flagged and referred these trades to the [Commodity Futures Trading Commission] after an exchange investigation. We have charged this individual and have been assisting regulators on this matter and provided evidence we collected, as we do in any referral.”
Zach Fulton, a spokesperson for the CFTC, which oversees prediction markets, declined to confirm or deny any investigation.
Settlement Talks, No Criminal Charges
According to ABC News, the CFTC and Perez have discussed settling the case — which could involve Perez returning his earnings and agreeing not to make similar trades in the future. Federal prosecutors have declined to open a criminal investigation.
Kalshi has not publicly addressed whether other bettors who wagered in the same markets will see their money refunded.
A Growing Problem for Prediction Markets
Concerns around insider trading have become a defining challenge for prediction markets as platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have exploded in popularity. A Google employee, politicians, campaign staff, a US soldier, and disgraced former congressman George Santos are among those who’ve reportedly used inside information to make bets on prediction markets in recent years.
Last month, Kalshi implemented new rules requiring users to disclose employment information before betting on markets “with heightened insider or manipulation risk” — a safeguard that, as this case shows, has arrived not a moment too soon.